トピックス

2004.07.29|その他

新しい日本と21世紀の日米関係

English

1. 日本の政治が大きく変わり始めた

7月11日の参議院選挙は日本に二大政党時代が到来したことを明確に示している。我々民主党は与党自民党を上回る議席を獲得した。従来民主党が強いとされた 都市部での勝利に加えて、地方においても自民党と互角の結果となった。何よりも比例選挙においては自民党1,700万票を400万票以上上回る、 2,100万票を獲得した。得票率でみると比例区選挙で民主党は38%、自民党は30%であり、選挙区選挙では民主党39%、自民党35%である。
今回の選挙結果は多くの国民からは一時的なものとは受け取られていない。昨年11月の衆議院選挙でも政権交代こそなかったものの、比例選挙においては、 既に民主党は自民党を200万票近く上回っていた。参議院選挙後の世論調査でも、国民の7割近くが二大政党化がすすんだことを「良かった」としており、 30代から50代までの有権者は自民党よりも民主党の政権を望んでいる。戦後60年の日本政治の中ではじめて二大政党、政権選択の時代を迎えている。
私は1990年に衆議院議員となり、3年後に自民党を離党、非自民政権である細川政権樹立に参加した。その後10年以上野党に所属し、一貫して新たな政 権政党づくりに取り組んできた。この間日本の政治を改革するという、私の信念が揺らぐことはなかった。私に対し「まじめすぎる、堅物」との批判もあるが、 政界においては、まじめなことが悪いことならそれは日本の政界がまちがっているのだと思う。6年前に民主党が結党以来、政策責任者、幹事長などを経て、今 年5月に民主党代表に就任した。党の№2である幹事長として取り組んできたのは、政党運営の透明性を高めるための改革。例えば我が国の政党として初めて民 主党の政治資金の収支報告を監査法人に監査させることを決断した。日本の閉鎖的な記者会見システムを改め内外のマスコミにオープンにするなどの改革を実行 してきた。今回の参議院選挙では「正直な政治」と「本当の改革」を訴え小泉総理の自民党に勝利した。
国民は50年間実質的に政権交代がない日本の政治を何とか変えたいと真剣に考えている。長すぎた権力の座が生み出した自民党の腐敗と既得権保護の政治を 終わらせ、国民の手に政治を取り戻したいと考えている。「自民党をぶっ壊す」といった小泉総理に一時期待はしたものの、現実には改革がすすまないことを理解し、本当に改革をすすめるためには政権交代が必要だと感じている。
民主党はメンバーの国会議員の7割が民主党結党後、即ちこの6年間に初当選した若い世代からなる政党。ビジネスマン、官僚、弁護士、NGOなど多様な経験 を持ち、日本を何とか再生したいとの思いから政治家を志した人の集まりである。しがらみなく日本の改革に取り組むことができる。我々民主党の使命は、ここ 3年以内に行われる次の衆議院選挙で確実に政権交代し、日本を変えることである。日本にとって残された時間はそれほど多くはない。私は必ず政権交代を成し 遂げ、日本を改革する。
今回、私の日本改革のためのビジョンと外交政策について、お話する機会をいただいたことを心から感謝申し上げる。

2. 私の改革理念

日 本の政治、とくに内政が直面している最大の問題は日本の置かれた環境が大きく変わったことに対応できていないことだ。かつての高度経済成長時代にできた、 当時としては最も効率的で優れた仕組みが、今や大きな障害となっている。安定成長、そして少子高齢化時代の急速な到来という新たな時代に対応するための抜 本的な改革が必要だ。
第一に中央集権体制から分権社会への転換である。国が独占している権限と財源を思い切って地方政府に移すことが重要である。我々は18兆円の国の様々な補 助金を廃止し、地方政府が自由に利用できる財源として地方政府に移すことを主張している。補助金には利害関係者が必ず存在する。いわば既得権益との戦いで あり、既得権益に立脚する自民党政権には絶対実現できないことである。ここ十年間で登場した全国の改革派知事達の主張は民主党に極めて近い。
第二には市場のことは市場に委ね、政治が介入しないことである。日本には国際的な競争力を持つ多くの企業がある。国際競争とは関係のない国内市場において は、様々な形で市場介入がなされ、保護政策が実施されてきた。私は市場を通じた自由な競争が経済の活力をもたらすとの信念の持ち主である。大胆な規制の撤 廃や独禁法の強化による公正で自由な競争の促進が必要である。
第三に市場で解決できない分野においてこそ、政治の役割が求められる。私は「自由で公正な社会」を実現する。即ち中間層の厚みがある社会、多様な生き方が 互いに尊重される社会、選択の機会が公平に保障される社会、次の世代に対して責任を果す社会、まじめに働く人が報われる社会、失敗した人が何度でもチャン スが与えられる社会、そして努力しても報われなかった人にも手を差し伸べる社会の実現である。国及び地方の長期債務残高のGDP比143.6%と財政上の 大きな制約のある中で、これらの課題に勇気も持ってチャレンジしていきたい。

以上の基本理念に基づいた具体的な政策について、参議院選挙時に選挙公約(マニフェスト)を提示した。今後更に検討を重ね、国民とりわけ若者が将来に希望が持てるような改革ビジョンを早急にまとめる。政権交代後4年以内に日本を再生する。

3.新たな外交政策の展開

米国はいまや世界史上例のない超大国である。経済力、政治力、軍事力いずれも抜きん出た存在である。日米同盟を維持し、更に発展させていくことは日 本にとって極めて重要。特に世界経済の成長センターであるアジア太平洋地域の安定と発展にとって、深い信頼関係に基づく日米同盟はなくてはならない存在で ある。このことを私の基本認識とした上で、いくつかの論点について率直に申し上げたい。
第一に抜きん出た力を持つ米国に対して、国際的な協調をより重視する姿勢を期待したい。米国の先制攻撃、単独行動主義に対して世界が懸念を示してい る。米国の軍事力なくして世界の平和が維持できないことは事実である。また国連は非効率で改革が必要であることも認識している。しかし、米国が単独行動主 義をすすめていけば世界は混乱する。テロや拡散する大量破壊兵器の脅威は一国の力ではどうすることもできない。またいかなる民主主義国家であっても権力が 誤って行使されることを完全に排除することはできない。私は世界のリーダーである米国が、より寛容であり、謙虚であることを期待したい。イラク戦争は一つ の反省材料とすべきである。国連が世界の平和のために、より重要な役割を果すことができるよう日米が中心となって国連改革をすすめるべきである。日本は国 連改革の先頭に立つとともに、安保理の常任理事国となって改革された国連において、更に重要な役割を果すべきと考える。
第二にこれからの日本の果すべき国際貢献について述べたい。日本は60年前の戦争の反省に基づいて、海外において武力行使することに慎重な姿勢を とってきた。憲法改正論議がいま行われているが、この平和主義の精神は重要であり、今後とも堅持すべきと考えている。日本には集団的自衛権の行使を広く認 め、自衛隊が米軍との共同した軍事力行使を世界中で行えるようにすべきとの意見もあるが私は反対である。しかし、私は従来の野党のような護憲論者ではな い。憲法を改正して国連安保理の明確な決議がある場合に、日本の海外における武力行使を可能にし、世界の平和維持に日本も積極的に貢献すべきとの立場に立 つ。この二つの考えはしばしば混同されるが、明確に違いが出るのは米国が国連安保理の決議なく、単独行動で武力行使したときに、日本がともに武力行使に参 加することを認めるか否かという点である。私は国連決議がない場合には日本は海外で武力行使すべきでないと考えている。
第三に日米同盟を更に充実した強固なものとするためには、国民的な理解と支持が不可欠である。日本は日米安保条約に基づき米軍にとって世界戦略上極 めて重要な基地を提供し、米軍に対する年間約6,400億円(55億ドル)の財政負担を行っている。沖縄の基地問題は限界状況にあり、現在検討中のトラン スフォーメーションの中で、沖縄の米軍基地の見直しを日米間で協議する必要がある。朝鮮半島安定後を見通した東アジアにおける米軍基地のあり方、そしてア ジア太平洋地域の安定のための日米韓三カ国の協力のあり方を、韓国政府も巻き込んで議論すべきと考える。
第四にイラク問題について一言述べたい。我々はイラク戦争に反対した。国民の6割近くがイラクの自衛隊派遣に反対している。イラクの現状を見れば、 イラクの治安確保のため米軍が活動することは必要なことだと考えている。しかし、イラクはいまだ各地で戦闘行為が行われており、我々は自衛隊がイラクにと どまっていることは海外での武力行使を禁じた憲法との関係で問題があると考えている。日本政府が憲法上の疑義を明確に説明することなく、多国籍軍への自衛 隊参加を決めたことは国民の強い批判を招いている。もちろん私は、イラクの復興のため日本は積極的な役割を果すべきと考えている。日本は最大50億ドルの 資金協力を約束し実施中。また警察、医療、教育などの面での協力も可能である。将来的に選挙によってイラク国民の代表が選ばれ、治安状況も安定し、憲法と の関係がクリアーされる状況になれば自衛隊を派遣しPKO的な役割を果させることは選択肢の一つと考えている。重要なことは、国際社会が一致してイラクの 復興支援に参加する環境づくりであり、そのための外交努力である。
第五に北朝鮮の問題について述べたい。北朝鮮の核及びミサイルは日本の安全保障上最大の脅威である。日本においては、国民的課題となっている拉致問 題とともに早期に解決する必要がある。北朝鮮にとって、その生存のため中国型の経済改革を実現することが不可欠であり、そのためには日本の経済協力資金が 必要である。日本としては核や拉致問題の解決なくして、日朝国交正常化やこれに伴う経済協力はあり得ないとの基本原則を堅持しつつ積極的な役割を果たして いきたい。六カ国協議が成功した場合には、北東アジアの当面の安定と朝鮮半島の非核化という直接的な成果のほか、東アジアは二つの貴重な果実を得ることと なる。それは日米韓三カ国の強固な同盟関係の構築と、それに中国、ロシア、北朝鮮を加えた六カ国による将来の東アジア協力体制の基盤づくりである。是非と も、六カ国協議を成功させるために、日米韓三カ国の緊密な協力が必要である。

最後に中国との関係について述べたい。中国は日本にとって米国と並ぶ貿易相手国であり、歴史的・文化的にも深い関係にある。強固な日米同盟を前提と しながら、中国といかにして信頼関係を築いていくかは、日本の外交・安全保障政策上の最大の課題である。ここ数年、米中両国がいままでにない良好な関係に あることは日本にとって極めて望ましいことだ。日米中三カ国の経済的相互依存関係は今後ますます深まることは確実である。冷戦的な発想に陥ることなく、ア ジア太平洋地域における平和と安定のため、日米中の三カ国が建設的協力関係を築いていくことが重要である。

私はここ十年間中国、韓国の次代の指導者との交流のため、可能な限り毎年1回は両国を訪れてきた。日本は60年前の戦争の結果失った信頼を、アジアにおい て、いまだ取り戻すことができていない。経済面だけでなく、政治、安全保障面で日本がアジアにおいて信頼され、リーダーとしての役割を果すことができるよ う政治家として更に努力していきたい。
そして日米両国関係については、日米同盟がより国民的基盤を持った強固なものとなるよう、両国の自立と相互信頼をキーワードにより対等な同盟関係の構築を 目指して努力する決意である。日米両国は経済・文化など多面的な協力関係にある。私にとって米国での一年間の生活経験は、私を政治家への道を歩むことを決 断させるきっかけとなった。米国はすばらしい国である。持続可能なより深い日米関係を築いていくことは日本にとって国益であり、政治家としての私のこれか らの果すべき大きな課題である。今後とも皆様のよきアドバイスをお願いしたい。

The New Japan and Japan-U.S. Relations in the 21st Century

July 29, 2004
Katsuya Okada

1. The Start of a Dramatic Change in Japanese Politics

The Upper House election of July 11 has clearly shown that the age of the two-party system has arrived in Japan. Our party, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), gained more seats than the ruling Liberal-Democratic Party (LDP). In addition to winning in the major cities, which has been our area of traditional strength, our party went neck-and-neck with the LDP in the outlying regions of the country as well. Most importantly, in the proportional representation race, we captured a total of 21 million votes, exceeding the 17 million votes that went to the LDP by a margin of more than 4 million votes. In terms of the ratio of total votes received for proportional representation, we captured 38 percent, as opposed to 30 percent by the LDP. Similarly, in voting in electoral districts, we came home with 39 percent, as against 35 percent for the LDP.

Many of the Japanese people do not view these election results to be a temporary phenomenon. Already in the Lower House elections of November 2003, even though we did not actually oust the LDP from power, the DPJ outperformed the LDP in the proportional representation race by a margin of nearly 2 million votes. In public opinion polls taken after the Upper House election, nearly 70 percent of the people indicated that “it was a good thing” that Japan has moved toward a system of two major parties. Moreover, a majority of voters in their 30s, 40s and 50s responded that a DPJ administration was more desirable than a LDP one. For the first time in the 60 years of Japan’s postwar political history, the country is advancing into an age of a two-party system and a viable choice of administrations.

I was elected to the House of Representatives in 1990. Three years later, I left the LDP and participated in the establishment of the Hosokawa administration, a non-LDP administration. Thereafter, for more than ten years, I have been a member of the opposition and have worked ceaselessly for the creation of a new party capable of accepting the mantle of government. During this period, I remained firm in my determination to transform Japanese politics. I have been criticized as being “Too straight, too serious”, but if being serious is considered a bad thing in politics, then I believe that there is something wrong with the Japanese political world. Since the establishment of the DPJ six years ago, I have served in various party posts, such as Chair of the Policy Research Committee and Secretary General of the party. Since May of this year I have been serving as President of the DPJ. In my days as Secretary General, the second highest post in the party, I pursued reforms with the goal of achieving greater transparency in party management. For instance, we became the first among all Japanese political parties to decide to have our income and expenditures report for political contributions audited by a certified firm of accountants. In another reform that we introduced, we broke away from the traditionally exclusive press system and opened our press conferences to all domestic and international press organizations. In the July Upper House election, we defeated Prime Minister Koizumi and his LDP by advocating “honest politics” and “real reform.”

For 50 years, Japan has not experienced a real change of government. Now the people are seriously thinking about changing Japanese politics. We want to put an end to the LDP’s politics of corruption and vested interests that results from being in the seat of power for far too many years, take back the reins of power and put them squarely in the hands of the people. Prime Minister Koizumi did create temporary excitement when he proclaimed that he was going to “destroy the LDP.” But the people have seen that real progress was not made in reform. They now feel very strongly that that reform cannot be achieved without a change of government.

Seventy percent of the DPJ members of the Diet won their seats for the first time after the formation of the DPJ. In other words, ours is a political party made up primarily of young politicians who were first elected to the Diet during the past six years. They come from highly diverse backgrounds and experiences. Some came to politics from the business world, while others were bureaucrats, lawyers and aid workers. What they all have in common is a burning desire to revitalize Japan, and this is what has drawn them into politics. Standing free of all the bonds and fetters of the past, these people can truly engage in reforming Japan. The mission of the Democratic Party of Japan is to take full control of the reins of government in the general election that will be held at some time within the next three years, and to thereby transform Japan. Time is running out for Japan. I have committed myself to bringing about a change of government and to reforming our country.

I really appreciate having the opportunity to speak with you today on my vision for the reform of Japan and the DPJ’s foreign policy goals.

2. My Philosophy of Reform

The greatest problem facing Japanese politics, particularly domestic politics, is that it has failed to respond to the dramatic changes in the environment surrounding Japan. During the period of accelerated economic growth, what was at that time an excellent and optimally efficient system was created. But this system has now come to haunt us as the greatest obstacle to progress. Japan must implement fundamental reforms if it is to successfully respond to the new age of low economic growth, and the rapid movement toward an aging society with declining birth rates.

What are the reforms that we are advocating? First of all, we are saying that Japan must make the transition from a centralized society to a fully decentralized one. It is vital that the administrative powers and financial resources that are now monopolized by the central government be completely transferred to local governments. The DJP advocates the abolition of 18 trillion yen in central government-tied subsidies and the transfer of these funds to local governments for use as discretionary spending. Tied subsidies always involve vested interests. This is unavoidable. Thus, in a sense, we are proposing to fight an all out war against vested interests. This is something that can never be done by the LDP because it is a party founded on vested interests. The position of the various reformist prefectural governors that have taken office over the past decade is very close to the position advocated by our party.

The second reform calls for non-intervention of the government in the market. Japan has numerous corporations with outstanding international competitiveness. As for the domestic markets that are effectively cut off from international competition, it is here that the government intervenes and implements protectionist policies. It is my firm conviction that free market competition breeds economic vitality. Hence, it is absolutely necessary to promote fair and free competition through an audacious program of deregulation and the strengthening of the Antimonopoly Act.

Thirdly, politics must play its proper role in areas where the market is unable to generate solutions. I am committed to the realization of a “free and fair society.” I envision a society endowed with an extensive middle class, a society in which mutual respect is paid to diverse lifestyles, a society in which freedom of choice is guaranteed impartially, a society that carries out its responsibilities to future generations, a society in which people who work faithfully are rewarded, a society in which people who fail are given plenty of chances to try again, and a society that extends a helping hand to people who have not succeeded in gaining a reward for their efforts. The long-term debt of the national and local governments currently stands at 143.6 percent of GDP and severe fiscal restrictions have been created, but we must boldly accept the challenge of realizing these goals.

Specific policies based on this philosophy of reform were spelled out in the DPJ Manifesto that was released at the recent Upper House election. We shall continue to examine our positions and to speedily create a reform vision that enables the Japanese people, and in particular the younger generation, to have hope in the future. Following a change of government, we will revitalize Japan within four years.

3. The Development of a New Foreign Policy

Today, the United States stands as a superpower of a scale unprecedented in world history. It stands far ahead of others in economic, political and military power. It is extremely important for Japan to maintain the Japan-U.S. alliance and to support its continued development. A Japan-U.S. alliance based on a deep sense of trust is an absolutely essential requirement for stability and development in the Asia-Pacific region, which has emerged as the growth center for the global economy. This is my fundamental position. Now, I would like to comment candidly on several key issues.

First of all, as the unchallenged superpower, we wish to see the United States place more emphasis on international cooperation. The world is very concerned with U.S. unilateralism and the doctrine of pre-emptive attack. It is true that world peace cannot be maintained without U.S. military power. I am also fully aware that the United Nations is inefficient and needs reform. However, the pursuit of unilateralism by the U.S. can only lead to greater confusion and tumult in the world. No single country can cope effectively with the threats of terrorism and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Moreover, no democracy is completely free of the risk of erring in the exercise of its power. I wish to see greater humility and tolerance on the part of the United States, as the world’s leader. The war in Iraq provides much food for thought and reflection. Japan and the United States should lead the way in reforming the United Nations so that the UN can play a more important role for world peace. It is my belief that Japan should lead the efforts for UN reform and should assume a more important role in a reformed UN as a permanent member of the Security Council.

Secondly, I would like to comment on the future international contribution of Japan. Acting on the lessons learned from the war of 60 years ago, Japan has adopted an extremely cautious stance on the overseas use of military force. The revision of the Constitution of Japan is being now debated, but I believe this spirit of pacifism is important and must be maintained in the future. There are those in Japan who argue that the right of collective self-defense should be widely accepted and that the Self-Defense Forces should be able to join the U.S. military in the use of military force anywhere in the world. I am opposed to this position. However, neither am I in favor of the traditional arguments developed by the opposition parties for the preservation of the Constitution as it now stands. My position is the following. If the Constitution is revised and a clear UN Security Council resolution has been adopted on the matter, it should be possible for Japan to use force overseas, and to make an active contribution to the maintenance of world peace. These two approaches are frequently confused. But it is on the following point that they are absolutely distinct. That is, if the United States takes unilateral military action in the absence of a resolution of the UN Security Council, should Japan be permitted to join the United States in this exercise of force or not? My position is that Japan must not participate in any use of force overseas in the absence of a UN resolution.

Thirdly, in order to further develop and strengthen the Japan-U.S. alliance, it is essential to gain the understanding and support of the public. In accordance with the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty, Japan provides the U.S. with military bases that are of extreme importance from a global strategic perspective. It also accepts an annual financial burden of approximately 640 billion yen ($5.5 billion) in support of the U.S. military. Problems related to the military bases in Okinawa have come to the limits of tolerance. As part of the transformation of the U.S. military currently under study, Japan and the United States must consult regarding a revision of the U.S. military bases in Okinawa. We believe that discussions must be initiated, including the government of the Republic of Korea, to consider an overall vision for U.S. military bases in East Asia after the stabilization of the Korean Peninsula, and the way in which trilateral cooperation between Japan, the United States and South Korea can be used for the stabilization of the Asia-Pacific region.

Fourthly, I would like to comment briefly on the problem of Iraq. The Democratic Party of Japan opposed the war in Iraq. Nearly 60 percent of the people of Japan are opposed to sending Self-Defense Forces to Iraq. In light of the current situation there, we do acknowledge that it is necessary for the U.S. military to take action for the establishment of law and order in Iraq. However, fighting continues in many parts of the country. As such, we believe that the continued stationing of the Self-Defense Forces in Iraq is problematic from the perspective of the Constitution, which forbids the use of force overseas. The government of Japan decided on the participation of the Self-Defense Forces in the multinational force without clarifying some serious constitutional questions. This has generated very strong criticism from the public. Certainly I believe that Japan must play an active role in the reconstruction of Iraq. Japan has already committed itself to a maximum aid package of $5 billion and is now in the process of implementing this aid. Japan can also provide assistance in such areas as policing, medical care, and education. Once elections are held and the representatives of the Iraqi people duly take office, and once law and order and internal stability is achieved, we believe one of the options open to Japan would be to dispatch the Self-Defense Forces to undertake a peace-keeping function, provided that the constitutional questions have been satisfactorily resolved. The important point is to create an environment in which the international community can be united in supporting and participating in the reconstruction of Iraq, and this is where diplomatic efforts must be made.

As a fifth point, I would like to touch on the North Korean problem. North Korean missiles and nuclear weapons pose the greatest threat to the security of Japan. For Japan, this issue must be resolved as soon as possible in tandem with the abduction issue, which has developed into a major public concern. For its survival, North Korea has no choice but to undertake the types of economic reforms that have been implemented in China. Japanese economic cooperation and financial assistance constitute essential requirements for the success of such an undertaking. We would like to see Japan play an active role in assistance, while strictly adhering to the fundamental principle that the normalization of diplomatic relations and the subsequent provision of economic assistance is impossible unless and until the problems of nuclear arms and abductions are resolved. Quite clearly, in addition to the direct impact of bringing stability to the Northeast Asia and making the North Korean Peninsula nuclear-free, success in the six-country talks can yield two invaluable results for the future stabilization of East Asia. First of all, it will promote the development of a strong three-country alliance in East Asia consisting of Japan, the United States and South Korea. Secondly, with the addition of China, Russia and North Korea, success in the talks will prove highly conducive to the development of a six-country framework that will form a basis for East Asian cooperation.

As my final point, I would like to touch on Japanese relations with China. Today, China stands together with the United States as Japan’s most important trading partner. Needless to say, Japan and China share very deep historical and cultural ties. While accepting the continuation of a strong Japan-U.S. alliance as a fundamental premise, the most important issue facing Japanese diplomatic and security policies is how to develop ties of mutual trust with China. In recent years, the United States and China have enjoyed good relations on an unprecedented level. For Japan, this is a welcome and highly desirable development. I am certain that the ties of economic interdependence among Japan, the United States and China will continue to be deepened in the years ahead. We must not allow ourselves to be hobbled by perceptions that may linger on from the Cold War. What is important is for the three countries of Japan, the United States and China to create constructive ties of cooperation for the achievement of peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region.

Over the past ten years, I have made it a personal commitment to visit China and South Korea every year as far as possible and to engage in various forms of exchange with the next generation of leaders of these two countries. As a result of the war of 60 years ago, Japan lost the trust of Asia and has yet to regain this trust. Japan must win the trust of Asia, not only in the field of business and economics but also in the areas of politics and security, and must arise to play a leadership role in the region. I am committed to continuing my efforts as a politician for the achievement of these goals. As for the Japan-U.S. alliance, the alliance must be strengthened by rooting it in a more widely based foundation of public support. For this purpose, I am determined to strive for the establishment of an alliance of equals founded on the keywords of independence and mutual trust of the two countries. Japan and United States are linked by a wide array of economic and cultural cooperative ties. It was the one year that I spent in the United States and the experiences that I gained in that period that prompted me to aim to become a politician.

The United States is a wonderful country. There is no doubt that the development of a sustainable and more deeply rooted Japan-U.S. relationship is conducive to the national interests of Japan. I believe the achievement of this goal to be one of the most important challenges that stand before me as a politician. I look forward to enjoying your continued advice in the future.




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